| March Madness Begins |
|
 Johnny “Ballpark” Franks can be heard weekdays locally from 3pm-6pm on SportsRadio 730 The Ump (730 AM/103.9 FM). Email comments and questions to Johnny.Franks@cumulus.com |
Published: Thursday, March 11, 2010
March is now upon us and, along with the warmer weather, a “Madness” begins to take over our country. Starting Sunday with the announcement of this year’s pairings for the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament men, women, and children of all ages, races, and backgrounds begin filling out brackets.
From office pools to nationwide contests, people will be looking for the early-round upsets to those teams that can actually win six games and be the last team remaining to cut down the nets.
I wonder if Henry V. Porter, assistant executive secretary of the Illinois High School Association, could have ever imagined a phrase he coined in 1939, “March Madness,” for the IHSA tournament would grow to what it means today on a national landscape.
One of the questions I am asked most during this time of the years involves whether I think a #16 seed will ever take down a #1 seed. A hundred times these two seeds have faced off and each time the #1-seed has prevailed. However, there have been close calls. In fact, it almost happened twice in 1989, with Georgetown edging Princeton, 50-49, and Oklahoma escaping with a 72-71 win over East Tennessee State (a game I actually worked as a media liaison in Nashville). Plus, there was Michigan State’s 75-71 overtime victory over Murray State in 1990. And, don’t forget Purdue’s 73-71 over Western Carolina in 1996.
Just like when I play blackjack I am all about the odds and numbers when selecting winners for my bracket. It is great when you can claim an upset pick in the first round (no matter if it did take five brackets to do so). But, it is hard to overlook certain trends. For example, #1-seeds are 188-12 in the first two rounds of the tournament since 1985.
Also, in six of the last nine years, at least two top seeds have reached the Final Four. This includes all four #1-seeds making it to the final weekend in 2008, but that has only happened once. Also, except for #11-seed George Mason reaching the Final Four in 2006, all teams in the Final Four since 2001 have been seeded #1-#5.
A couple of other facts to consider if you are determined to pick upsets. Teams seeded #11 and #12 have both won 31% of their games against #6 and #5 seeds respectively in the first round. And, #10 seeds have won 39% of their games against #7 seeds. But, avoid the temptation of going against the top four seeds in the opening round, a 90% winning clip by these top teams against seeds #13-#16 can derail your bracket in a hurry.
The best way to look at your bracket is in terms of it being a marathon not a sprint. You are in for the long haul not early dashes of success. Then again, you can do what a friend of mine used to do who had no knowledge of basketball. She would pick the winners based on how tough and ferocious the mascots were. All of us have our own method which makes this time of year filled with “madness” all over the country.
Johnny "Ballpark" Franks is the afternoon host on SportsRadio 730 The Ump (730AM/103.9 FM). His show can be heard each weekday from 3p-6p. E-mail: Johnny.Franks@cumulus.com.
